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Forex News Timeline

Thursday, June 24, 2021

The negative phase in EUR/USD is expected to finish above the 1.1970 level, suggested FX Strategists at UOB Group. Key Quotes 24-hour view: “Yesterday

The negative phase in EUR/USD is expected to finish above the 1.1970 level, suggested FX Strategists at UOB Group. Key Quotes 24-hour view: “Yesterday, we highlighted that ‘upward momentum has not improved by much and EUR is unlikely to strengthen much further’ and we expected EUR to ‘trade between 1.1890 and 1.1960’. EUR subsequently rose to 1.1969 before pulling back to close slightly lower at 1.1925 (-0.11%). Momentum indicators are mostly ‘neutral’ and EUR is likely trade between 1.1890 and 1.1960 for today.” Next 1-3 weeks: “Our update from yesterday (23 Jun, spot at 1.1940) still stands. As highlighted, the rebound in EUR has been more resilient than expected and a break of 1.1970 would indicate that the weak phase has run its course. We also indicated that EUR ‘has to move and stay below 1.1890 within these 1 to 2 days or the odds for further EUR weakness would diminish quickly’. EUR subsequently rose to 1.1969 during London hours before easing off. There is still chance, albeit a slim one for EUR to extend its weakness but unless EUR can close below 1.1890 by end of today, it appears increasingly likely that EUR has moved into a consolidation phase. In other words, the weak phase that started early last week is likely coming to an end soon.”

During a press conference on Thursday, the Bank of Korea (BOK) Governor Lee Ju-yeol said that he is planning “an orderly exit” from the current easy-m

During a press conference on Thursday, the Bank of Korea (BOK) Governor Lee Ju-yeol said that he is planning “an orderly exit” from the current easy-money policy. He said that he is thinking of raising rates “within this year,” though the exact timing and pace will depend on economic conditions. The South Korean central bank has kept its policy rate at a record low of 0.50% since May 2020 to support economic growth, hit by the COVID-19 pandemic. Market reaction USD/KRW whipsawed on the comments from Governor Lee, now trading flat around 1,135.

Asian stocks were trading mixed with little or no movement on Thursday. The US dollar remains strong as Investors continue to analyze Fed official’s m

Asia-pacific shares trade cautiously on Thursday.US dollar remains elevated after the Fed's mixed response to inflation.China is ready to work jointly with all parties to build a closer Belt and Road partnership.Asian stocks were trading mixed with little or no movement on Thursday. The US dollar remains strong as Investors continue to analyze Fed official’s mixed view on inflation and its effect on future guidance on interest rates. MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-pacific shares outside Japan recorded minute gains of 0.1%. Japan’s Nikkei rose marginally with 0.046% gains, while Shanghai Composite lost 0.3%. It is worth noting that S&P 500 Futures were trading at 4,241, up 0.24% for the day. The US 10 year treasury yields remained below 1.5%, which kept the greenback gains limited. A clear direction in the US bond yields could help gain a clear picture of where equities are headed. In the latest development, the US and China are believed to be discussing a possible meeting of US Secretary of State Antony Blinken and Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi at a G20 meet in Italy next week. Meanwhile, Chinese President Xi Jinping wrote a message to the Asia-pacific prominent leaders for a High-Level Conference on Belt and Road Cooperation. This move came after the severe criticism of Beijing policy in the G7 meeting in the previous week.
 

USD/INR pares weekly gains with a recent pullback to 74.20, down 0.05% intraday, amid the initial hour of Thursday’s Indian trading session. In doing

USD/INR snaps two-day uptrend, steps back from intraday top.Doubts over India’s vaccination success join fears of Delta Plus covid variant to back buyers.Indecision over Fed’s next moves, US President Biden’s infrastructure spending passage tests immediate moves.US data, Fedspeak and macro relating to covid, stimulus become important for fresh impulse.USD/INR pares weekly gains with a recent pullback to 74.20, down 0.05% intraday, amid the initial hour of Thursday’s Indian trading session. In doing so, the Indian rupee (INR) pair drops for the first in three days amid the market’s indecision over the coronavirus (COVID-19) conditions in India and the US Federal Reserve’s (Fed) next moves, not to forget US President Joe Biden’s infrastructure spending plan. INR bulls cheer the latest declines in the COVID-19 cases, easing of virus-led activity restrictions in states and record surge in daily vaccinations. The latest data from the Indian Health Minister, per Reuters, mention a 54,069 daily rise in coronavirus infections, taking a total to 30.08 million, whereas the pandemic-led fatalities increased 1,321 to 391,981. Even so, the New York Times (NYT) gives India 93rd rank for its inoculation, versus 82nd during early June, while marking a meager 3.8% fully vaccinated Indians. On the contrary, the US dollar gains safe-haven bids as Fed policymakers and Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen could not convince markets of any challenges to the easy money policies. Also, doubts over how the US Senators will be able to bridge a large gap between the Republicans’ demands and Democrats’ push ahead of a two-week holiday session add to the market jitters. Furthermore, the covid variant fears regain traction in the US after an Epidemiologist warns over the jump in the cases this fall and add to the greenback’s strength. Against this backdrop, Indian shares track mildly bid US stock futures while the US dollar index benefited from a firmer US 10-Treasury yield by the press time. Moving on, USD/INR traders may keep struggling for clues ahead of the key US Durable Goods Orders. Also important will be the comments from the Federal Reserve (Fed) officials, as well as virus and stimulus updates. Read: US Durable Goods Orders May Preview: Is the consumer really absent? Technical analysis USD/INR rebound from the 74.00 needs acceptance from mid-April lows near 74.55 to keep the pair buyers hopeful. Otherwise, a 50-day SMA level of 73.64 will be the key to watch during the fresh downside below the weekly low.  

Netherlands, The Gross Domestic Product n.s.a (YoY) above forecasts (-2.8%) in 1Q: Actual (-2.4%)

Netherlands, The Gross Domestic Product s.a (QoQ) below expectations (-0.5%) in 1Q: Actual (-0.8%)

Silver Price (XAG/USD) treads water in the Asian session. Prices move in a very close trading band with no meaningful traction. At the time of writing

Silver consolidates near the $25.80 after a free fall from the $28.00 level.XAG/USD is holding above 200-day SMA indicating emergence of support here.Oversold momentum oscillators warn against aggressive directional bids.Silver Price (XAG/USD) treads water in the Asian session. Prices move in a very close trading band with no meaningful traction.  At the time of writing, XAG/USD is trading at $25.89, down 0.02% for the day. XAG/USD daily chart On the daily chart, the white metal has been consolidating in a broader trading range of $27.00-$28-50, before breaking the range on June 16. XAG/USD tested the levels last seen in April. If price makes sustained moves above the intraday high at $25.96, then it could continue to move higher. The first target could be found at the previous day’s high at $26.29. The  Moving Average Convergence Divergence ( MACD) indicator holds onto the oversold zone with stretched selling conditions. Any uptick in the MACD would allow bulls to take over the $26.60 horizontal resistance level. That said, XAG/USD  would be motivated to test the high of June 17 in the vicinity of the  $27.25 area. Alternatively, if price decisively breaks the 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $25.70, then it could meet its first lower target at the low of June 21 at $25.55. A daily close below the mentioned level could prompt the bulls to march toward April 15 low at $25.32 followed by the $25.00 horizontal support level. XAG/USD additional level
 

USD/CHF buyers jostle with the key short-term hurdle around 0.9195, up 0.10% intraday, ahead of Thursday’s European session. The major currency pair’s

USD/CHF holds onto previous day’s recovery moves from weekly low.Bullish chart formation, upbeat RSI keep buyers hopeful.Sellers may wait for two-week-old support break for fresh entries.USD/CHF buyers jostle with the key short-term hurdle around 0.9195, up 0.10% intraday, ahead of Thursday’s European session. The major currency pair’s rebound on Wednesday forms a bullish chart pattern on the four-hour (4H) play. With the RSI line flashing a strong level, above 50 but not overbought, the pair becomes capable to cross the 0.9200 resistance and confirm the bullish flag formation. The sustained break of the 0.9200 enables the USD/CHF bulls to aim for a theoretical target surrounding the 0.9300 mark, also comprising multiple tops marked during mid-March. During the move, the latest high near 0.9240 may probe the pair’s upside whereas March’s top near 0.9375 could test the run-up challenging the yearly peak of 0.9472. Alternatively, pullback moves seem less challenging until staying beyond an ascending support line from June 11, near 0.9060. However, the stated flag’s support line near 0.9145 can offer immediate rest should the USD/CHF sellers sneak in. Overall, USD/CHF portrays a bullish trend and the confirmation of flag can add strength to the upside momentum. USD/CHF four-hour chart Trend: Bullish  

GBP/USD tilts southward below 1.4000, mildly offered around 1.3960, heading into the key London open on Thursday. While the pre-BOE caution pokes the

GBP/USD retreats from intraday high, snaps three-day uptrend.UK’s delayed unlock, Delta Plus fears and Brexit woes probe bulls eyeing hawkish BOE statement.BOE rate, bond purchases likely to remain unchanged.US data, Fedspeak should also be followed for fresh impulse.GBP/USD tilts southward below 1.4000, mildly offered around 1.3960, heading into the key London open on Thursday. While the pre-BOE caution pokes the cable buyers after a three-day uptrend, the pair remains on the front foot for the first week in June amid UK policymakers’ optimism. The virus-led pessimism and the Brexit deadlock join the cautious sentiment ahead of the Bank of England (BOE) monetary policy to weigh on the quote. That said, a 41% jump in the Delta Plus covid infections and uncertainties over the July 19 deadline for the UK’s complete unlock probes optimists at the “Old Lady” (BOE). The same could well be witnessed in the recently softer economics, namely the preliminary readings of the UK’s June monthly Markit PMIs. Brexit woes remain critical for the GBP/USD traders even as the European Union (EU) is ready for a mild leeway concerning the sausage war, per Bloomberg. The reason could be traced from the British policymakers’ comments, spotted in The Independent, suggesting a lack of readiness to alter the demands over the Northern Ireland (NI) protocol. Additionally, Irish fishermen show dissatisfaction with the fishing quotas and are ready to protest over the same, signaled the Sky News. On the other hand, Fed speakers and Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen struggle to convince markets of no rate hike and tapering fears. At the same time, US Senators are in a rush to pass President Joe Biden’s infrastructure spending bill ahead of a two-week holiday period. It’s worth noting that the coronavirus (COVID-19) variant fears regain traction in the US after an Epidemiologist warns over the jump in the cases this fall. Amid these plays, stock futures are mildly bid and the US 10-Treasury yields keep the previous day’s recovery moves, which in turn favor the US dollar index (DXY) to pare the weekly losses during the second positive day. Moving on, BOE policymaker’s voting count and statements conveying the economic optimism will be the key to recall the GBP/USD bulls. Alternatively, comments suggesting a delay in the monetary policy adjustments may extend the latest pullback. It should be noted that the Fed’s tapering clues do inflate hopes from the English central bank. Read: BoE Preview: Cautiously hawkish, hints on tightening? Following the BOE, US Durable Goods Orders and comments from the Federal Reserve (Fed) will be crucial as greenback traders remain skeptical over policymakers’ efforts to tame the tapering and rate hike woes. Read: US Durable Goods Orders May Preview: Is the consumer really absent? Technical analysis GBP/USD remains above the key hurdles, namely a 100-day SMA level of 1.3950 and a horizontal area from early April, around 1.3925-15, amid upbeat RSI conditions to keep buyers hopeful. However, the 1.4000 threshold and the late April tops near 1.4010, followed by 50-day SMA near 1.4035, test the cable’s short-term upside moves.  

The buying interest in the US dollar keeps EUR/USD edgy on Thursday morning Asian’s session. After testing the high of 1.2263 in late May, the Euro lo

EUR/USD struggles to hold onto the gains in the Asian session.The Euro gains some ground on upbeat economic data.Uptick in US treasury yields underpins the demand in the US dollar.The buying interest in the US dollar keeps EUR/USD edgy on Thursday morning Asian’s session. After testing the high of 1.2263 in late May, the Euro lost the battle against the greenback. It breached the coveted 1.1900 mark and tested the lows of 1.8477 in the week. At the time of writing, EUR/USD is trading at 1.1924, down 0.01% for the day. The US 10 year benchmark yields trade at 1.49% with gains of 0.34%. The US Dollar Index (DXY) follows the treasury yields and stands strong at 91.82. Mixed comments from Fed’s official on inflation and interest rates outlook affects the greenback movement. Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic said he expected interest rates to rise in late 2022 with surging economic growth at 7% and inflation above the Fed’s 2% target this year. Both Bostic and Fed Governor Michelle Bowman believed recent price pressure may take longer than anticipated for them to fade. Meantime, US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen on Wednesday warned Congress about the risk of debt default and a probable new financial crisis. The comments weigh on the sentiment of the US dollar. In addition to that,  the US senators had reached a deal on the infrastructure spending bill and planned to discuss it with President Joe Biden today. On the other hand, the shared currency gains were limited due to the attractive valuation of the USD. The upbeat domestic economic data holds the lower ground for the Euro. The IHS Markit Eurozone Service PMI rose to 58.0 in June, well above the market forecast at 57.8. The Consumer Confidence Indicator gained 1.8 points, slightly higher than the market consensus at -3.0. As for now, investors are glued to the release of a host of data in the US. Durable Goods Orders, Gross Domestic Product (GDP), and Initial Jobless Claim data. In the Eurozone, German IFO Business Climate data eyed to gauge the market sentiment.  EUR/USD additional levels
 

China Banking and Insurance Regulator Official said on Thursday that they “expect China’s monthly PPI to hit 10%, adding pressure to consumption.” “Me

China Banking and Insurance Regulator Official said on Thursday that they “expect China’s monthly PPI to hit 10%, adding pressure to consumption.” “Medium- and small-sized financial institutions face risks from defaults of local government investment arms and property firms,” the Chinese regulator added. Related readsUSD/CNH extends pullback from two-month top amid sluggish USD, cautious optimismUS, China discuss possible meeting at G20 next week – Reuters

Saudi Arabia’s Energy Minister Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman said late Wednesday, "we have also a role in taming and containing inflation, by making sur

Saudi Arabia’s Energy Minister Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman said late Wednesday, "we have also a role in taming and containing inflation, by making sure that this market doesn't get out of hand." Additional comments It’s not clear whether oil prices are gaining due to "real supply and demand." Because of "expectations and trajectories that are excessively optimistic." His comments come ahead of next week's OPEC and its allies (OPEC+) meeting, scheduled on July 1. Read: WTI eyes the $75 critical level 

USD/CNH bears flirt with intraday low surrounding 6.4760, following the first negative daily closing in nine days, amid early Thursday. The cross-curr

USD/CNH remains pressured around intraday low after snapping eight-day uptrend.Market sentiment dwindles amid a lack of major data/events.Fedspeak, stimulus hopes favor buyers versus Sino-American tussles, covid variant woes.USD/CNH bears flirt with intraday low surrounding 6.4760, following the first negative daily closing in nine days, amid early Thursday. The cross-currency pair jumped to the highest since April 23 the previous day before snapping the monthly uptrend. Behind the moves could be the market’s indecision amid a light calendar and mixed clues. While sentiment-positive headlines from the Fed and the US Senate favor the latest pullback in pair prices, coronavirus (COVID-19) updates and the Beijing-Washington tension lure buyers. US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen’s rejection of the reflation fears echoes the Fed policymakers’ latest efforts in taming the rate hike calls. The same could be reflected in the latest Fed rate hike expectations that stepped back from December 2022 a week ago to February 2023 of late. Also favoring the risk-on mood could be comments from the US Senators suggesting increased odds favoring US President Joe Biden’s infrastructure spending passage before a two-week holiday period. Not only a slew of Democratic Senators but Mitt Romney from Republicans also sounds optimistic in the latest updates concerning Biden’s $1.2 trillion infrastructure spending plan. Alternatively, a warning from a US Epidemiologist over the jump in the cases in this fall joins a 41% increase in Delta Plus variant cases in the UK to weigh on the risk appetite. Further, China’s warning to the US over having warships in the Taiwan Straits didn’t stop the Biden administration from restricting exports to five companies from Beijing, which in turn tests the market optimists. Amid these plays, S&P 500 Futures print mild gains but the US Treasury yields and the US dollar index (DXY) remain sluggish by the press time. Moving on, risk catalysts remain in the driver’s seat but the US Durable Goods Orders for May, expected 2.7% versus -1.3% prior, could offer clues to the reflation chatters and reverse USD/CNH losses if matching upbeat forecasts. Read: US Durable Goods Orders May Preview: Is the consumer really absent? Technical analysis Unless declining back below the convergence of 100-day SMA and 50% Fibonacci retracement of March-May downside, around 6.4700, USD/CNH buyers stay hopeful.  

Despite a deal reached on a "framework" for an infrastructure spending bill, US House of Representatives Leader Nancy Pelosi and Senate Majority Leade

Despite a deal reached on a "framework" for an infrastructure spending bill, US House of Representatives Leader Nancy Pelosi and Senate Majority Leader Charles Schumer are not endorsing the Bipartisan bill outrightly until they see the details, according to the US media reports. Schumer: “We’ll let them announce it first. Let’s see it. We support the concepts we’ve heard about it.” Earlier on, a Democratic negotiator, Joe Manchin, said after the group met with White House officials, ​"we came to an agreement on a plan that we have and we're just going to try to wrap it up tomorrow.” White House spokeswoman Jen Psaki said, “the group made progress towards an outline of a potential agreement, and the president has invited the group to come to the White House tomorrow to discuss this in person.” A bipartisan group of 21 senators, or "G-21." has been working on a $1.2 trillion, eight-year bipartisan infrastructure plan. more to come ...

At the highs of 132. 70, EUR/JPY is testing the critical counter-trendline and the confluence of the 21-EMA as well as the horizontal resistance with

Bears are moving in at an acritical level of resistance confluence. EUR/JPY bears are seeking a test of the 4-hour support structure. At the highs of 132. 70, EUR/JPY is testing the critical counter-trendline and the confluence of the 21-EMA as well as the horizontal resistance with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement slightly below.  The following illustrates the bearish bias. EUR/JPY daily chart 4-hour chart The break of support structure near 132 the figure will be key where the 21 EMA is also located in the same vicinity. 

NZD/USD eases to 0.7042, following a pullback from a fortnight-old resistance, amid early Thursday. Even so, the kiwi bears remain unconvinced as MACD

NZD/USD probes three-day uptrend with a short-term key resistance line.Bullish MACD, weekly support line keep buyers hopeful.Horizontal area from early May adds to the upside filters.NZD/USD eases to 0.7042, following a pullback from a fortnight-old resistance, amid early Thursday. Even so, the kiwi bears remain unconvinced as MACD flashes bullish signals and the prices are well beyond the weekly support line. Hence, the latest weakness in the quote may aim for the immediate rising trend line support, near the 0.7000 threshold, to back the bears. Following that, the yearly bottom surrounding 0.6925 and the 0.6900 round figures will be in the spotlight. During the fall, Tuesday’s bottom surrounding 0.6960 may offer an intermediate halt to the NZD/USD sellers. Meanwhile, an upside clearance of the stated resistance line from June 11, around 0.7070, won’t be a green pass for the NZD/USD bulls as a horizontal region comprising lows marked during May and mid-June, close to 0.7105–15, will act as an additional barrier to the north. It’s worth noting that there are multiple bumps to the pair’s upward trajectory beyond 0.7115 until it crosses the June 10 swing low of 0.7165, which in turn can test the pair buyers. NZD/USD four-hour chart Trend: Pullback expected  

S&P 500 Futures stay firmers around 4,220, up 0.20% intraday, during Thursday’s Asian session. The risk barometer stepped back from the weekly top the

S&P 500 Futures fails to extend the previous day’s pullback moves amid a quiet session.US Treasury Secretary Yellen backs Fed policymakers’ defensive play.Senators sound optimistic over Biden’s infrastructure spending ahead of two-week holiday.US Durable Goods Orders, risk catalysts eyed for fresh impetus.S&P 500 Futures stay firmers around 4,220, up 0.20% intraday, during Thursday’s Asian session. The risk barometer stepped back from the weekly top the previous day before the markets believed in the Fed’s defense to easy money policies, as well as increasing odds favoring the passage of another stimulus from US President Joe Biden. Not only a slew of Democratic Senators but Mitt Romney from Republicans also sounds optimistic in the latest updates concerning Biden’s $1.2 trillion infrastructure spending plan. The US policymakers are in a rush to finalize and pass the bill ahead of a two-week-long holiday season. Read: Wall Street Close: Nasdaq stays firmer even as Dow, S&P 500 retreat Also on the positive side could be the headlines concerning US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen’s rejection of the reflation fears, indirectly favoring the majority of the Fed policymakers in turning down rate hike calls. It’s worth noting that expectations of a Fed rate hike recently stepped back from December 2022 to February 2023. On the contrary, fears of the covid variant regain traction in the US as an Epidemiologist warns over the jump in the cases in this fall. The Delta Plus variant of the coronavirus (COVID-19) recently pushed back the UK’s unlock deadline and is the key concern for the British government amid the latest 41% jump in daily cases. Elsewhere, China’s warning to the US over having warships in the Taiwan Straits didn’t stop the Biden administration from restricting exports to five companies from Beijing. Talking about data, US Markit PMIs were mixed with manufacturing gaining more than services. Further, activity numbers from the UK were on the same line but those from European Union remained firmer for June. Amid these plays, Wall Street closed mixed and the US Treasury yields struggled to stay positive. Looking forward, investors will keep their eyes on the BOE monetary policy and the US Durable Goods Orders for fresh impulse. However, major attention will be given to how the American Senators break the deadlock over the much-awaited extra stimulus, as well as the Fedspeak and covid headlines.

AUD/NZD trades on a lower note in the initial Asian session. The pair continues to skid lower in the previous six sessions while holding the support n

AUD/NZD continues to move in a range bound manner on Thursday.Pair envisioned more losses if price decisively breaks 1.0740.Momentum oscillator holds onto the positive territory with a neutral outlook.AUD/NZD trades on a lower note in the initial Asian session. The pair continues to skid lower in the previous six sessions while holding the support near the 1.0740.  At the time of writing, AUD/NZD is trading at 1.0746, down 0.07% for the day. AUD/NZD daily chart On the daily chart, the AUD/NZD cross has been consolidating near the 1.0800 mark with multiple top formations from the previous week. The ascending trendline from the low of 1.0599 acts as a defensive for the bulls. A sustained move below the 20-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 1.0740 could push AUD/NZD lower toward the 1.0720 horizontal support line, which also coincides with the bullish sloping line. A break of the above trendline would invite fresh round selling opportunities for AUD/NZD bears. In doing so, the bears would aim for the low of June 4 at 1.0702. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence(MACD)indicator reads above midline with a neutral outlook. Any downtick in the MACD could bring the 1.0675 horizontal support level back into action.
  
Alternatively, if price moves higher then, it could test the previous day’s high at 1.0786. Market participants would then aim for the 1.0820 horizontal resistance level followed by May 15 high at 1.0850. AUD/NZD additional levels
 

In recent trade today, the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) set the yuan (CNY) reference rate at 6.4824 against the estimated 6.4805 and the previous 6.4

In recent trade today, the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) set the yuan (CNY) reference rate at 6.4824 against the estimated 6.4805 and the previous 6.4621. About the fix China maintains strict control of the yuan’s rate on the mainland. The onshore yuan (CNY) differs from the offshore one (CNH) in trading restrictions, this last one is not as tightly controlled. Each morning, the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) sets a so-called daily midpoint fix, based on the yuan’s previous day closing level and quotations taken from the inter-bank dealer.   

EUR/USD and the DXY both reached their 38.2% Fibonaccis this week where a continuation of the dominant trends would be now expected to eventuate on a

The value of the greenback is on focus as the euro sets up for a bearish extension. DXY is a mirror image and is poised to rally. EUR/USD and the DXY both reached their 38.2% Fibonaccis this week where a continuation of the dominant trends would be now expected to eventuate on a break of key structures. DXY is an index of the value of the United States dollar relative to a basket of foreign currencies, most heavily weighted to the euro by 57.6%. The Index goes up when the US dollar gains strength when compared to other currencies and is pressured when the euro strengthens.  The following illustrates the bearish bias in EUR/USD and therefore, the reverse in the DXY from a daily perspective.  EUR/USD daily chart The price is expected to now move in to test the support structure at 1.1911. 1.1920 would be then expected to act as a resistance on a retest prior to an eventual erosion of price towards a test of 1.18 the figure in an extension of the dominant bearish daily trend.  DXY daily chart DXY will be subsequently pushed to test the resistance of the market's bids in the euro and/or the bearish bets on the greenback at 92.20 that guards 92.50/80 territory and onwards. 

AUD/USD probes three-day uptrend below 0.7600, around 0.7575 amid Thursday’s Asian session. In doing so, the Aussie pair justifies the pullback from 5

AUD/USD remains sidelined after a three-day uptrend, failures to cross immediate hurdle.Weekly support line tests sellers, falling trend line from early April adds to the upside filters.AUD/USD probes three-day uptrend below 0.7600, around 0.7575 amid Thursday’s Asian session. In doing so, the Aussie pair justifies the pullback from 50-SMA. However, strong Momentum and sustained trading beyond the weekly rising support line keeps the buyers hopeful. Hence, AUD/USD traders should wait for a clear break of the area between the stated SMA and support line, respectively around 0.7600 and 0.7535. While the downside break of 0.7535 won’t hesitate in challenging the yearly bottom surrounding 0.7475, an upside clearance of 50-SMA level will aim for a seven-week-old resistance line near 0.7630. It’s worth noting that a falling trend line from June 11 and Monday’s swing high, near 0.7620 and 0.7545 in that order, add filters to the AUD/USD pair’s short-term moves. To sum up, AUD/USD recovery needs justification but bulls aren’t out of the woods. AUD/USD four-hour chart Trend: Pullback expected  

After posting strong gains in the previous three sessions, AUD/JPY is moving in a close trading band in the Asian session. The cross is struggling nea

AUD/JPY extends the previous three session’s gains on Thursday.AUD remains grounded on improved risk appetite, upbeat economic outlook.Yen suffers from downbeat economic data.After posting strong gains in the previous three sessions, AUD/JPY is moving in a close trading band in the Asian session. The cross is struggling near the 84.10 mark, now support-turned-resistance level. At the time of writing, AUD/JPY is trading at 84.09, up 0.07% for the day. Investors remain unfazed by the US higher inflation expectations among Fed officials. The mixed responses from the policymakers fail to provide any meaningful traction in the US dollar. The improved risk sentiment helps Aussie gains.
 
It is worth noting that S&P 500 Futures were trading at 4,239, up 0.18% for the day. Iron ore prices gained after dropping to a two week low of $210.5 per tonne, after China’s top economic planning agency said it would probe malicious speculation in the iron ore market Higher commodity prices helped commodity-linked AUD to gain against the majors. On the economic side, the data showed on Wednesday that the IHS Markit Manufacturing PMI fell to 58.4 in June. The Composite PMI decreased to 56.1 in June from 58.0 in the previous month. However, this reading reflected the expansion in the private sector’s business activity, albeit at a slower pace than it did in May. On the other hand, the yen remained submissive to the dismal economic data. The Jibun Manufacturing PMI fell to 51.5 in June from 53.0 in the previous month. A slower vaccination rollout program and lockdown restriction kept the currency pressurized, despite the policymaker's optimistic economic outlook as revealed in the Minutes of Meeting of the Bank of Japan’s (BOJ) latest monetary policy. The market dynamics continue to influence the pair’s performance in the absence of any major fundamental news. AUD/JPY additional levels  

USD/CAD refreshes intraday low to 1.2300 amid a lackluster Asian session on Thursday morning. The Loonie pair remained unchanged the previous day as b

USD/CAD struggles to extend recovery from weekly bottom.Fedspeak, Biden’s infrastructure spending headlines favor risk appetite.WTI consolidates recent gains amid mixed clues during quiet session.US Durable Goods Orders, Fed’s signals and US stimulus talks will be the key.USD/CAD refreshes intraday low to 1.2300 amid a lackluster Asian session on Thursday morning. The Loonie pair remained unchanged the previous day as bulls and bears jostle amid mixed concerns. Among them, the downbeat print of Canadian Retail Sales for April, -5.7% MoM versus -5.0% forecast, joins the mixed US Markit PMIs to test the USD/CAD bears. On the contrary, firmer oil prices, Canada’s key export item, as well as the upbeat market sentiment tame the recovery moves. Recently, chatters surrounding US President Joe Biden’s infrastructure spending package and fears of covid variants tease the pair sellers even as WTI steps back from multi-month high above $73.00. Additionally, the passage of Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau's budget bill, one step closer to become the law, also confuses the USD/CAD trader amid a quiet session. It’s worth noting that the Fed policymakers, including Chairman Jerome Powell, gained support from US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen to defend easy money policies. Also notable is the US Senators’ rush to finalize the details of the $1.2 trillion stimulus ahead of two-week-long holidays. Against this backdrop, stock futures are mildly bid but the US Treasury yields struggle for clear direction by the press time. Moving on, a light calendar in Canada highlights US Durable Goods Orders for May as the key catalyst of the day. However, major attention will be given to oil prices and Fedspeak, not to forget stimulus and covid headlines, for fresh impulse. Read: US Durable Goods Orders May Preview: Is the consumer really absent? Technical analysis Wednesday’s Doji candlestick above 50-day EMA keeps USD/CAD buyers hopeful unless the quote drops below 1.2250. The recovery moves, however, will be questioned by 100-day EMA near 1.2400. 

GBP/USD picks up bids to 1.3965 during the fourth consecutive positive day in Asia. In doing so, the cable pair cheers the previous day’s upside break

GBP/USD pokes intraday high during the four-day uptrend.Further gains envisioned on firmer RSI, sustained break of the key moving average.50-DMA, monthly resistance line probe buyers, bumpy road ahead for bears.GBP/USD picks up bids to 1.3965 during the fourth consecutive positive day in Asia. In doing so, the cable pair cheers the previous day’s upside break of 100-day SMA (DMA) amid upbeat RSI conditions. However, bulls are chained ahead of the key monetary policy meeting of the Bank of England (BOE). In addition to the 100-DMA breakout and RSI levels, a successful run-up beyond a horizontal area from early April, around 1.3925-15, strengthens the bullish impulse. Hence, GBP/USD buyers are well set to battle the 1.4000 threshold while the quote’s further upside will be tested by late April tops near 1.4010. Also acting as the key upside barriers are 50-day SMA level of 1.4036 and a descending resistance line from June 01 near 1.4070. Meanwhile, GBP/USD bears will have a tough time on their return as 100-DMA of 1.3950 and the resistance-turned-support area of 1.3925-15 act as near-term strong supports. Even if the pair breaks the 1.3915 level, 1.3850 and the monthly low near 1.3785 will challenge any further downside. GBP/USD daily chart Trend: Further upside expected  

The price of silver is off a tough n the early Asian session by some 0.18% as it continues to consolidate vs the greenback this week. XAG/USD is curre

Silver is under pressure in consolidation at trendline support. All eyes are now moving towards US economic data as the Fed gets digested.  The price of silver is off a tough n the early Asian session by some 0.18% as it continues to consolidate vs the greenback this week.  XAG/USD is currently trading at $25.83 and has travelled on the day so far between a low of $25.82 and $25.91. Meanwhile, the price of silver was higher by some 0.4% by the closing bell on Wall Street with XAG/USD rising from a low of $25.76 to a high of $26.29. Base metals also rose sharply as the market reacted to the release of lower than expected volumes from China’s strategic reserve. Additionally, the greenback pared gains following weak June services PMI that fell sharply to 64.8, while sales of new US homes also dropped unexpectedly. However, Federal Reserve officials warned that tapering of assets purchased could be in the next few months. Dallas Fed President Robert Kaplan said he’s expecting rates will start to rise in 2022 as the economic recovery gathers pace.  Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic said with growth surging to an estimated 7% this year and inflation well above the Fed's 2% target, he now expects interest rates will need to rise in late 2022. Fed Governor Michelle Bowman said that while they largely agree recent price increases will prove temporary, they also feel it may take longer than anticipated for them to fade. These comments followed Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s comments from the prior day where he played down rising price pressures. However, precious metals continue to underperform which still suggests that the bar is low for further weakness in prices.  

Japan Corporate Service Price Index (YoY) above forecasts (0.9%) in May: Actual (1.5%)

Japan Foreign Investment in Japan Stocks dipped from previous ¥-33.2B to ¥-191.5B in June 18

Japan Foreign Investment in Japan Stocks declined to ¥-191B in June 18 from previous ¥-33.2B

Japan Foreign Bond Investment up to ¥979.7B in June 18 from previous ¥410.6B

Ahead of Thursday’s key event, Bank of England (BOE) monetary policy meeting, Reuters came out with the analysis by saying, “The Bank of England will

Ahead of Thursday’s key event, Bank of England (BOE) monetary policy meeting, Reuters came out with the analysis by saying, “The Bank of England will say on Thursday whether it is worried about a recent jump in inflation, which broke above the central bank's 2% target and looks set to climb higher as Britain reawakens its economy from its coronavirus slumber.” “But last week, the U.S. Federal Reserve began to move towards reducing its pandemic stimulus by signaling its first rate hike in 2023, a year earlier than previous projections, putting the focus on what other central banks might now do,” added Reuters. The analytical piece also quotes Hugh Gimber, global market strategist at J.P. Morgan Asset Management, as saying, “Last week the Fed took its first step in guiding investors towards less easy policy ahead. The Bank of England may not be far behind.” Comments from Evercore, a consulting firm, go a step ahead while favoring the rate hike concerns by May 2022 “if the furlough phase-out goes better”. Against this backdrop, GBP/USD stays sidelined around 1.3965 by the press time of Thursday’s Asian session.

GBP/JPY price edges higher on Thursday morning in the initial trading session. The cross made YTD high at 156.07 in May and continued to drift lower s

GBP/JPY makes a stellar recovery from the previous week's lower levels.Bulls remain hopeful above the 154.95 level, look for additional gains.Momentum oscillator moves in favor of upside momentum.GBP/JPY price edges higher on Thursday morning in the initial trading session. The cross made YTD high at 156.07 in May and continued to drift lower since then. After testing the low of 151.32 price again rose to the 155.00 mark on Wednesday. At the time of writing, GBP/JPY is trading at 154.99, up 0.08% for the day.GBP/JPY daily chartOn the daily chart, the GBP/JPY cross has been in the continuous downside momentum since the beginning of the month. The pair remained under selling pressure after making a YTD high of 156.07 on May 27. Price is comfortably placed above the 20-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 154.78, which strengthens the upside momentum for the pair. In doing so, GBP/JPY would test the first resistance at the high of June 16 at 155.38. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator reading above the midline, which signifies the impending higher price movement. Any uptick in the MACD would ignite a fresh round of buying opportunities. Market participants would then look out for June 4 high at 155.76 followed by the high of May 31 in the vicinity of the 155.95 area. Alternatively, if price makes a sustained move below the intraday low at 154.87, then it could inch toward the previous day’s low at 154.16. The cross would then be encouraged to retest the 153.65 horizontal support level. Next, GBP/JPY bears would attempt to capture the 153.20 horizontal support level. GBP/JPY additional levels
 

EUR/GBP fades bounce off 11-week low, flashed the previous day, by easing to 0.8542 during Thursday’s Asian session. In doing so, the currency pair re

EUR/GBP bears catch a breather around early April lows.Strong EU PMIs battle Brexit, Delta Plus woes to keep bears hopeful.BOE is expected to repeat status-quo, comments over tapering will be the key.German data, Fedspeak and qualitative risk catalysts should be watched too.EUR/GBP fades bounce off 11-week low, flashed the previous day, by easing to 0.8542 during Thursday’s Asian session. In doing so, the currency pair remains sidelined as mixed plays combat ahead of the key bank of England (BOE) monetary policy meeting. Strong activity numbers from Europe failed to stop the quote from refreshing the multi-day low on Wednesday as UK PMIs remained firm too, per preliminary data for June. The downside momentum could also be linked to the pre-BOE preparations amid hopes of witnessing hawkish signals from the “Old Lady”. That said, UK’s Delta Plus covid variant threat seems to escalate as cases jump 40% in a single day with 41 new infections, per The Independent. Even so, UK’s Vaccine Minister Nadhim Zahawi safeguards the government while saying, “The UK's vaccination rollout has saved more than 14,000 lives, and prevented 44,500 hospital admissions in England alone, including 2,500 in the past two weeks,” per Sky News. Elsewhere, Sky News also mentioned that the MPs were told of the UK government’s confidence in agreeing on changes to the Northern Ireland Protocol with the European Union. However, Irish fishermen protest against the lower quota in the post-Brexit deal. On a broader front, the US Federal Reserve (Fed) policymakers and Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen managed to tame the rate-hike and tapering woes, which in turn improved market sentiment. Though, uncertainty over the US President Joe Biden’s infrastructure spending package ahead of a two-week holiday in the American Senate probes market optimism. That said, S&P 500 Futures remain mildly bid whereas the US Treasury yields also stay firmer by the press time. Moving on, German Import Price and IFO figures, for May and June respectively, could entertain EUR/GBP traders ahead of the key BOE. “The Bank of England MPC will announce its June monetary policy decision. The policy is likely to remain on hold, and we will be watching the Bank’s assessment of risks given stronger inflation outcomes but a delayed reopening. There is also potential for a market reaction to the MPC vote on continuing QE. The May vote was 8-1, with talk of either 2 or 3 dissenters this time,” said Westpac ahead of the event. Technical analysis EUR/GBP remains on the bear’s radar unless crossing a confluence of 50-day and 100-day SMA near 0.8625. However, the cross-currency pair’s immediate downside is challenged by early March’s low near 0.8530, as well as a downward sloping trend line from April 19, near 0.8510.  

Oil prices are flat in Asia with bulls resting below the recent highs made overnight when a larger than expected drop in US oil inventories proved tha

WTI consolidates the overnight bid as nulls eye the $75 level for the sessions ahead. Inventories data, demand and the OPEC meeting next week are driving the bid. Oil prices are flat in Asia with bulls resting below the recent highs made overnight when a larger than expected drop in US oil inventories proved that demand is continuing to improve.  On a spot basis, WTI was 0.25% higher by the closing bell at $73.24, ending below the highs of $74.22 and up from the lows of $72.84. In Asia, the price is trading at $73.23, slightly below the high of the session at $73.31. The Energy Information Administration reported US oil inventories fell by 7.6-million barrels last week, well above the 4.3-million-barrel drop expected. Gasoline inventories were also lower, falling 2.9 million barrels.  ''This was the fifth weekly fall in inventories and pegs the commercial crude oil stockpile at 459.1mbbls, the lowest level since March 2020,'' analysts at ANZ bank explained.  ''Gasoline inventories were also weaker, as the driving season pushes demand higher. The large drawdown highlights how tight the market is; however, the lack of supply response is also having an impact.'' In the background, OPEC+ group is expected to limit supply as they sit on more than 7-million barrels per day of unused capacity at the same time while negotiations with Iran continue to linger. An OPEC+ meeting next week will be closely watched by traders as the group is expected to decide on its August production levels in order to ease global deficits expected in coming months. ''More cautious members are debating whether any increase in production should be pushed to August instead, which would open the door to higher prices in the near-term,'' analysts at TD Securities explained. ''Notwithstanding, oil inventories should soon reach the critical benchmarks set by the 2015-19 average levels by July, which should prompt OPEC+ to ramp up the pace on the unwind of their deal. In this scenario, the breakout north of $70/bbl may not be sustainable, but the cautious plan would see the Summer Breakout continuing to play out in the near-term.'' WTI technical analysis The $75 target is in focus. The daily chart shows that the price is steadily approaching the target following a significant retracement to prior resistance structure. With the price closing above the prior day’s close once again, the focus is on the upside for the forthcoming sessions. 

EUR/USD eases from intraday top to 1.1930 amid a subdued Asian session on Thursday. Although the major currency pair is on the way to snap a three-wee

EUR/USD keeps weekly gains, mildly bid on the day.Recovery moves need to cross two-week-old resistance line to convince bulls.Early March lows add to the downside filters, 50-SMA strengthens bearish formation’s resistance.EUR/USD eases from intraday top to 1.1930 amid a subdued Asian session on Thursday. Although the major currency pair is on the way to snap a three-week downtrend, it forms a bearish chart pattern on the four-hour (4H) play. It should, however, be noted that bullish MACD signals restrict the quote from breaking the weekly ascending channel, forming part of the bearish flag pattern. On the contrary, 50-SMA adds strength to the flag’s resistance, around 1.1990, which in turn keeps EUR/USD buyers baffled. Also challenging the pair’s short-term upside could be the 1.2000 psychological magnet and a downward sloping trend line from June 09, near 1.2042. Meanwhile, a clear break of 1.1915 will quickly attack the weekly bottom surrounding 1.1845 before rushing towards the theoretical target challenging the yearly low near the 1.1700 threshold. On their way down, EUR/USD sellers may find the early March lows near 1.1835 and the 1.1800 as buffers. EUR/USD four-hour chart Trend: Recovery lacks momentum  

USD/JPY extends the previous session’s gains in the initial Asian trading hours. The pair gathers momentum and refreshes the YTD highs near the 111.11

USD/JPY continues to march higher with strong gains.Strong US dollar contributes to the upside momentum in the pair.Yen remains submissive on mixed economic data and a  softer BOJ tone.USD/JPY extends the previous session’s gains in the initial Asian trading hours. The pair gathers momentum and refreshes the YTD highs near the 111.11 mark. At the time of writing, USD/JPY is trading at 110.97, up 0.02% for the day. The US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the performance of the greenback against its six major currencies, trades at 91.80. The US 10-year benchmark yield hovers near 1.48% with 0.12% gains. The gains in the greenback traced back to Fed official’s debate over rising inflation pressure after Fed Chair Jerome Powell downplayed the rising pricing pressure once again. The IHS Markit US Manufacturing PMI rose 62.6 in June from 62.1 in May, much above the market forecast of 61.5. The readings revealed record growth in factory activity as COVID-19 restrictions eased. The IHS Markit US Services PMI fell to 64.8 in June,  much lower than the market consensus at 70.0.  The IHS Markit US Composite PMI dropped to 63.9 in June, from a record high of 68.7 in May. The mixed data held the gains for the greenback. On the other hand, the Japanese yen lacks behind the investor’s spotlight on the mixed economic state. The Bank of Japan (BOJ) board members felt massive stimulus would help the economy to recover, with domestic consumption potentially providing a tailwind as accumulated savings get spent.  Market participants are now bracing up for the slew of economic data: US Durable Goods Orders, GDP Price Index, Corporate Profits QoQ, and GDP Growth Rate QoQ. The Weekly Initial Jobless Claims and Goods Trade Balance Adv for May.  USD/JPY additional levels  
 

With less than a day before the US Senators’ two-week recess, President Joe Biden’s infrastructure and spending plan deadlock probes market sentiment

With less than a day before the US Senators’ two-week recess, President Joe Biden’s infrastructure and spending plan deadlock probes market sentiment of late. In this regard, CNN said, “The next 24 hours could determine whether two of President Joe Biden's major bipartisan priorities, infrastructure and policing legislature, will collapse.” “If they don't finalize an agreement, Democrats will try to go it alone on infrastructure — a risky gambit that has no guarantee of success. And there likely won't be any new policing legislation this Congress without Republican backing,” added the news. Not only the $1.2 trillion infrastructure package but the overhaul of the nation’s policing laws was also the key concern before the US Senate members. The latest update suggests that US Senators from the Democratic Party, namely Joe Manchin, Jon Tester, as well as Mitt Romney from Republicans, signal they are close to an infrastructure deal. FX implications… Following the news, S&P 500 Futures print mild gains even as Wall Street closed mixed. However, the AUD/USD prices, the risk barometer in Asia-Pacific, remain sidelined by the press time of early Thursday. Read: AUD/USD keeps first weekly gains in three above 0.7550 amid risk-on mood

US share market fades the bullish momentum even as Fed policymakers manage to tame the rate-hike woes. The underperformance could be traced to deadloc

US equity benchmarks closed mixed with tech shares favoring Nasdaq.Tesla jumps over 5.0%, consumer discretionary steps back amid mixed PMIs.Fedspeak convinces markets of no immediate rate fears.Doubts over Biden’s infrastructure spending, covid variant probe the bulls.US share market fades the bullish momentum even as Fed policymakers manage to tame the rate-hike woes. The underperformance could be traced to deadlock over US President Joe Biden’s next stimulus and rising fears of the Delta Plus variant of the coronavirus (COVID-19). Also challenging the sentiment could be the mixed PMIs and Sino-American tussles. Against this backdrop, Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) dropped 71.34 points or 0.21% while S&P 500 snapped a two-day uptrend with a 0.11% downside, or 4.36 points, to 4,241.84. It should, however, be noted that Nasdaq cheered upbeat Treasury yields and firmer technology shares with 18.5 points, or 0.13%, of daily gains while refreshing an all-time high with 14,317.70. Among the major performers, Tesla’s 5.3% upside contrasted Moderna’s over 6.0% downside. Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s reaffirmation of no major challenge to the Fed’s current policy, gains support from President and CEO of the Federal Reserve Bank of Boston Eric Rosengren who expects, “most price increases will be reversed going into next year.” Also backing Powell was US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen by saying, “Most measures of inflation expectations remain well-anchored.” Elsewhere, the US restricts exports to five Chinese firms over rights violations while Beijing warned Washington over warships in Taiwan Strait. Both the economies have been at loggerheads of late. Furthermore, CNN mentioned that the next 24 hours could determine whether two of President Joe Biden's major bipartisan priorities, infrastructure and policing legislature, will collapse. Datawise, US Manufacturing PMI for June was firmer but the Services gauge repeats a lack of strong growth. Further, New Home Sales confirmed weakness in the American housing market with the latest figures for May. Moving on, US Durable Goods Orders, Personal Consumption Expenditures and Weekly Jobless Claims will decorate the calendar. However, Fedspeak and qualitative factors will keep the driver’s seat. Read: Forex Today: Waiting for the next catalyst

“Fed needs to watch the data to see if inflation is more persistent than expected,” said Eric Rosengren is president and CEO of the Federal Reserve Ba

“Fed needs to watch the data to see if inflation is more persistent than expected,” said Eric Rosengren is president and CEO of the Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, per Reuters. The Fed policymaker also joined the chorus including Chairman Jerome Powell and Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen while saying, “most price increases will be reversed going into next year.” Fed’s Rosengren further added, “While there are elevated prices for many goods and services that will be more moderate in 2022.” Additional key comments… A robust recovery is underway. Vaccination rates have occurred more rapidly than anticipated. Economy is getting close to some estimates of full employment. Many sectors of the economy are still suffering. There are shortages of goods and services because economy opened up so quickly. Some costs are repricing back to normal. The Federal Reserve does not expect used car price to continue to rise at the same pace. Sees inflation slightly higher than 2% in 2022. In terms of employment we're still well below where we were pre-pandemic. Fed will watch data and act if necessary. It is surprising overall average hourly earnings are not higher. We need to think about financial stability issues when there is a high degree of stimulus. Fed has to worry about rising housing prices and a boom-bust scenario. Not necessarily expecting a bust in home prices. Inflation risks are heightened and fed should be attuned to those patterns. Any forecasts expecting inflation above 3% next year are outliers. FX implications Fed’s Rosengren adds strength to the market’s strength in pushing back rate hike expectations and favor the risk barometers like AUD/USD to consolidate the previous week’s losses. Read: AUD/USD keeps first weekly gains in three above 0.7550 amid risk-on mood

AUD/USD bulls take a breather around 0.7575 as Thursday’s Asian session begins, following a three-day run-up that poked the 0.7600 threshold. The Auss

AUD/USD retreats after three-day uptrend, remains sidelined of late.Fedspeak, upbeat US data favor bulls, Aussie PMI, Sino-American tussles cap the upside.US Durable Goods Orders, qualitative factors will offer fresh impulse, Asian session can be quiet.AUD/USD bulls take a breather around 0.7575 as Thursday’s Asian session begins, following a three-day run-up that poked the 0.7600 threshold. The Aussie pair’s latest strength could be linked to the Fedspeak that tones down the last week’s hawkish rhetoric. It should, however, be noted that headlines concerning China and downbeat Aussie data, not to forget uncertainty over US President Joe Biden’s infrastructure spending and covid strain fears, seem to probe the bulls from time to time. Fed rate hike expectations pushed back… US Federal Reserve (Fed) Chairman Jerome Powell and colleagues get an upper hand in the fight to tame the rate-hike and tapering concerns. After Powell’s reaffirmation that the inflation risks are transitory, posing no major challenge to the Fed’s current policy, President and CEO of the Federal Reserve Bank of Boston Eric Rosengren expects, “most price increases will be reversed going into next year.” On the same line were comments from US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen saying, “Most measures of inflation expectations remain well-anchored.” It’s worth noting that Atlanta Federal Reserve President Raphael Bostic and Dallas Fed President Robert Kaplan stayed hawkish over the Fed’s next moves but got fewer accolades. Amid these plays, US rate hike expectations data suggest the first full rate increase is recently priced in at February 2023 versus December 2022 during the last week. Hence, a reduction in the rate hike calls favors the market sentiment and the risk-barometer AUD/USD prices. Elsewhere, China’s warning to the US over warships in Taiwan Strait and Sino-American trade tussles, not to forget Canberra-Beijing woes, test the risk appetite and favor US dollar buyers. Additionally, the lack of time in completing Biden’s infrastructure spending talks before the US policymakers take a recess to join the Delta Plus covid variant fears to weigh on the mood and put a bid under the greenback. Talking about data, US PMIs were modestly strong, with Manufacturing growing more than Services, but Aussie activities eased in June, per preliminary PMI data. Against this backdrop, Wall Street closed mixed and the US 10-year Treasury yields remain firm by the end of Wednesday’s North American trading session. Looking forward, a lack of major data/events up for publishing during the Asian session could keep AUD/USD traders troubled but the bulls may keep the reins until any major challenges to the risk appetite appears, likely from China or relating to US stimulus. Technical analysis Despite crossing the 200-day SMA level of 0.7558 on a daily closing, AUD/USD needs a clear upside break of 0.7585-90 before aiming the 0.7600 threshold and the month-start low near 0.7645.  

South Korea Consumer Sentiment Index above forecasts (103.6) in June: Actual (110.3)

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